22% VAT on foreign goods from 2027: potential impact on businesses and e-commerce

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The initiative to establish a 22% VAT rate on foreign goods sold through electronic trading platforms from January 1, 2027, could become one of the most significant changes in the regulation of cross-border e-commerce in recent years.

The proposed measure is aimed at levelling the competitive playing field between Russian and foreign sellers, but its potential impact extends far beyond tax adjustments. It essentially involves transforming the cross-border trade model in the mass consumer import segment.

What is the essence of the initiative?

It is proposed to:

  • establish a single VAT rate of 22% on foreign goods sold through marketplaces from January 1, 2027;
  • abandon the phased introduction;
  • extend the mechanism to goods within the duty-free import threshold into the EAEU territory.

An alternative approach, previously discussed by financial authorities, proposed a gradual increase in the rate—from 5% to 20% by 2030. Thus, the current initiative effectively envisions a more drastic transition to the new tax model.

Why the question became relevant

Cross-border e-commerce has grown significantly in recent years. Foreign sellers selling goods through digital platforms have gained access to Russian consumers without the need to establish a local legal presence.

This led to several effects:

  • price advantage compared to Russian sellers;
  • redistribution of turnover in favor of foreign platforms;
  • reduction of the tax base within the country;
  • increasing dependence on external logistics channels.

Under these conditions, the state strives to create a more symmetrical tax environment.

Potential implications for market participants

1. For marketplaces

The sites will be at the center of the new model’s administration. Possible options include:

  • revision of contractual schemes with foreign sellers;
  • change in the commission structure;
  • implementation of tax withholding mechanisms;
  • increasing burden on compliance and IT infrastructure.

In addition, adjustments to the policy for admitting foreign sellers to platforms are likely.

2. For overseas sellers

For foreign suppliers, the consequences may be more severe:

  • increase in the final price of the product;
  • reduction in marginality;
  • the need to adapt logistics and document flow;
  • possible creation of Russian representative offices.

Some players may refuse to operate in the market if their economic benefits are significantly reduced.

3. For Russian companies

Domestic sellers potentially receive:

  • more equal pricing conditions;
  • reduction of dumping pressure;
  • Expanding scalability capabilities on marketplaces.

However, the effect won’t be automatic. Increasing the tax burden could lead to a general increase in prices in the e-commerce segment, which will impact consumer demand.

Impact on cross-border trade patterns

Changing the tax burden can transform the very structure of imports.

Possible scenarios:

  • the transition of some foreign brands to localizing supplies through Russian importers;
  • increasing the role of distributors;
  • the growth of the warehouse model instead of direct shipping from overseas;
  • revision of pricing strategies in the mass segment.

If the initiative is implemented without a transition period, businesses will have to adapt quickly.

Legal and accounting aspects

For companies, the key questions are:

  • correct determination of the tax base;
  • distribution of responsibility between the marketplace and the seller;
  • accounting of VAT in cross-border settlements;
  • influence on the structure of commission agreements and agency schemes;
  • reflection of transactions in accounting and tax records.

Particular attention will be required for companies combining import, distribution and e-commerce.

Strategic issues for business now

In conditions of uncertainty it is advisable to:

  • conduct a simulation of the financial burden at a rate of 22%;
  • revise contractual relations with marketplaces;
  • assess the possibility of localizing supplies;
  • analyze the impact on marginality;
  • prepare changes to the accounting policy.

Even at the discussion stage, the initiative requires preliminary preparation.

The proposal to introduce a 22% VAT on foreign goods from 2027 reflects a trend towards stricter regulation of cross-border e-commerce.

For the state, this is a tool for levelling the competition field.
For businesses, it is a potential point of structural change.

Companies operating in the import and e-commerce sectors must now assess the tax and financial implications of potential reforms, as the abrupt introduction of a new rate without a transition period could significantly alter the economics of cross-border sales.

With proper legal and accounting preparation, risks can be minimized, and new conditions can be integrated into a long-term development strategy.

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