Tax Control in 2026: Key Risks for Businesses and Individual Entrepreneurs

Starting in 2026, the approach to tax control for companies and sole proprietors will change significantly. Tax authorities will gain expanded capabilities to analyze financial and economic activity, which will impact not only audits but also the overall business environment in interactions with banks, contractors, and government agencies.

This isn’t a formal increase in the number of audits, but rather the implementation of a more in-depth analytical model for assessing taxpayer performance. This model allows for the creation of a comprehensive financial and economic profile of a company or entrepreneur based on a wide range of data, including information from external sources.

Expanding the analytical powers of tax authorities

The new assessment system utilizes not only tax and accounting reports, but also information obtained through interdepartmental and intersystem exchanges. Financial indicators, cash flow, income and expense structure, and indirect data characterizing economic activity are analyzed.

As a result, an integrated assessment of the financial and economic condition is formed, which can be used:

• when tax authorities interact with banks;
• when checking the reliability of counterparties;
• within the framework of pre-trial tax control;
• when making decisions about conducting control measures.

For businesses, this means that tax risks are no longer limited to declarations and formal indicators.

Financial indicators as a source of increased attention

One of the key elements of the new system is the analysis of profitability and financial ratios compared to industry benchmarks. Significant deviations from average market indicators can be considered indicators of potential risks.

The following are of particular interest:

• persistently low or, conversely, abnormally high profitability;
• sharp changes in financial indicators without obvious economic reasons;
• discrepancy between turnover and tax burden;
• imbalance between revenue and headcount.

This type of analysis is carried out dynamically, usually over several reporting periods, which reduces the importance of one-time factors and enhances the significance of the overall financial picture.

Checking business connections and counterparties

An additional source of risk is interactions with counterparties whose activities exhibit signs of formality or low economic viability. The use of automated tools allows tax authorities to quickly identify transaction chains involving high-risk companies.

Factors that may negatively impact a business’s valuation include:

• working with counterparties that are not engaged in actual business activities;
• lack of resources among partners to fulfill obligations;
• formal document flow without economic content of transactions;
• Frequent change of contractors without business logic.

In such circumstances, preliminary partner verification and documentary confirmation of the authenticity of transactions become an integral part of tax security.

Working with the self-employed: a zone of increased control

Special attention is being paid to relationships with self-employed individuals. Tax authorities are assessing whether such schemes are being used to substitute for employment relationships and optimize the tax burden.

Signs of increased risk may include:

• regular and similar payments to one performer;
• performing functions typical of full-time employees;
• subordination to the internal regulations of the customer;
• the contractor has no other clients.

If such circumstances are identified, it is possible to reclassify the relationship with the corresponding tax consequences.

Check transactions and document flow

Digitalization of tax administration strengthens control over settlements and the processing of primary documents. Errors in check transactions, discrepancies in amounts, dates, or service listings can be automatically recorded and become the basis for inquiries from tax authorities.

In practice, risks most often arise due to:

• incorrect reflection of transactions in online cash registers;
• untimely generation of checks;
• discrepancies between accounting data and payment documents;
• formal approach to primary documentation.

For sole proprietors, an additional risk factor is the mixing of personal and business expenses, which complicates the accurate assessment of the tax base.

Formation of a taxpayer’s financial profile

The new tax control model creates a comprehensive financial and economic profile that reflects business activity over time. This profile effectively becomes a “portrait” of the company or entrepreneur within the tax administration system.

Based on this profile, analytical conclusions can be generated and are available upon request:

• credit institutions;
• business partners;
• government agencies.

If you disagree with the assessment results, you may request an adjustment; however, this requires a substantiated position and supporting documents.

Recommendations for reducing tax risks

In the context of expanded analytical control, preventive work with financial and tax indicators is of particular importance.

Practice shows the advisability of the following measures:

• conducting an internal analysis of profitability over several years;
• comparison of financial indicators with industry statistics;
• audit of payment structure and contractual models;
• verification of the correctness of check transactions and primary documents;
• analysis of relations with the self-employed and contractors;
• building transparent and consistent accounting.

This work allows us to identify vulnerable areas before they become the subject of attention from tax authorities.

In 2026, tax control will increasingly shift from formal audits to a comprehensive financial and economic assessment of businesses. For companies and sole proprietors, this means a more careful approach to financial performance, business relationships, and internal processes.

Transparency, data comparability, and timely internal audit are becoming key tools for reducing tax risks and maintaining business resilience in the new regulatory reality.